Football match predictions — model forecasts, honestly unvalidated.
Each match shows the model's own probabilities: result (1X2), over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score, and the most likely score. These are forecasts, not proven — no betting edge until the ledger says so. Fouls / shots / corners / cards aren't shown: the free results data doesn't include them (a future add-on, not faked).
Refit before each matchday, then scored on that day's results — measures the model's calibration (Brier/log-loss). Free data has no historical odds, so beating the market is the forward ledger's job, and it's allowed to say no.
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Where the model disagrees with the de-vigged bookmaker odds. Stakes are indicative quarter-Kelly, NOT advice — the model is unproven.